Greek house prices: what the Bank of Greece's research says, and doesn't say, about a bubble

A senior economist at the Bank of Greece (Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος, Trapeza tis Ellados), Greece's central bank, said on 14 October 2026 that he sees no "bubble" in the Greek property market, according to in.gr and OT.gr.³⁴ The Bank's two 2026 working papers on housing make narrower claims, and its latest risk review lists house prices among the first signs of risk building up.¹²¹³¹⁴

Who said there is no bubble?

The remark came from Giorgos Chondrogiannis (Γιώργος Χονδρογιάννης), director of the Bank of Greece's Economic Analysis and Research Department (Διεύθυνση Οικονομικής Ανάλυσης και Μελετών, Diefthynsi Oikonomikis Analysis kai Meleton).³⁴⁵ He spoke at the press event for the EY Attractiveness Survey Greece 2026 on 14 October 2026.⁵ in.gr and OT.gr belong to the same media group and carry the same byline, so we count them as one source.³⁴ They also quote him as saying that property prices have risen by no more than 17% compared with 2009, without saying whether that figure is nominal or real.³⁴

The two reports cite Bank of Greece research without naming it; the findings they describe match Working Papers 365 and 359.¹²³⁴ Working Paper 365 uses the word "bubble" only in the title of a study it cites.¹ Both papers state that they give their authors' views, not necessarily the Bank's.¹²

What does the Bank of Greece's house-price paper find?

Working Paper 365, "Modelling house price dynamics in Greece", by four Bank of Greece economists, was published in June 2026.¹ It splits real house prices in Greece over 2002–2025 into a slow-moving structural trend and a short-lived cyclical part.¹ It identifies "a pronounced and persistent upward shift in the long run house price trend from 2017 onward".¹

The authors attribute that shift "mainly to self-reinforcing house price dynamics, but also to the joint effect of strong demand and constrained supply".¹ The structural forces they list include higher construction costs, constrained building permits and housing investment, improving credit conditions and economic recovery.¹ in.gr and OT.gr write that the change "is attributed mainly" to those four forces, and that the analysis also takes into account "the persistence of the price path itself" (our translation); the paper's abstract puts self-reinforcing price dynamics first.¹³⁴

Rapid house price growth "does not, per se, signal mispricing in the housing market", the authors of Bank of Greece Working Paper 365 write.¹

Overvaluation, in the paper's words, "arises when prices deviate persistently from levels justified by their long-run fundamentals".¹ in.gr and OT.gr report that the research finds 2025 price rises below what fundamentals imply, pointing to "limited signs of overvaluation" (our translation).³⁴

Did the Golden Visa threshold slow prices?

Working Paper 359, "Threshold-based policies and distortions in housing markets", by two Bank of Greece economists and Christos Kotsogiannis of the University of Exeter, was published in March 2026.² It studies the reform that doubled the Golden Visa minimum property investment from €250,000 to €500,000 in selected municipalities, using data on 109,407 transactions from 2017 to 2024.²⁶

Before the reform, sale prices bunched around €250,000.² Afterwards, "this bunching disappears in municipalities subject to the higher threshold, while persisting in unaffected areas".² The higher-threshold municipalities saw "a relative deceleration in price growth", while nearby markets still eligible at €250,000 saw more transactions.²

In the affected Attica municipalities, reported (log) transaction values after the reform were about 9.5% lower than the paper's estimate of what they would otherwise have been.² In a rough calculation, the authors put the implied fall in reported buyer spending at about €70.7m across about 6,315 transactions, based on "officially reported transaction values rather than underlying market prices".²

Working Paper 359 does not cover the current rules.² The 2024 reforms, which set €800,000 in high-demand areas and €400,000 elsewhere, "were implemented from February 2025 onwards and therefore fall outside the period considered in this study".² Our analysis of foreign investment and Golden Visa applications in 2026 sets out the thresholds now in force.

How fast are Greek house prices rising now?

Apartment prices in Greece were 5.5% higher in nominal terms in April–June 2026 than a year earlier, according to provisional Bank of Greece figures reported on 15 September 2026.⁷⁸ Prices rose fastest outside the large cities, by 7.1%.⁷⁸ Apartment prices rose 8.3% on average in 2025, in the latest revision, against 9.1% in 2024.⁷⁸⁹

Where does the Bank of Greece itself see risk?

On 8 October 2026 the Bank of Greece kept the countercyclical capital buffer, an extra capital requirement on banks, at 0.5% for October–December 2026.¹³¹⁴ It found no excessive credit growth, but said its analysis showed the first signs of risk building up in certain areas, such as financing for non-financial companies, house prices and the current account, according to Liberal.gr and Powergame.gr.¹³¹⁴

The Bank's May 2026 Financial Stability Review attributed the continuing rise in house prices "mainly to persistent excess demand over available supply", according to Greek reports (our translation).¹⁰¹¹ Energodromio reported that the same review said apartment prices had passed their previous record, set in 2008.¹²

The review put net foreign direct investment in Greek real estate at an average of €1.6bn a year in 2018–2025, against about €170m a year in 2008–2017, and said it fell about 25% in 2025, which it linked to the Golden Visa restrictions.¹⁰¹¹

Morningstar DBRS, a credit rating agency, puts Greek apartment prices in 2025 7% above their 2008 peak, and the OECD price-to-income index for Greece at 109.5, close to its 2012 peak of 114.1.¹⁵¹⁶

What does the evidence tell buyers?

Neither working paper calls Greek prices a bubble, and the Golden Visa evidence stops before the €800,000 and €400,000 rules applied from February 2025.¹² Apartment prices were still rising in April–June 2026, below the 8.3% average for 2025, and the Bank's own review of 8 October 2026 counts house prices among the first signs of risk building up.⁷⁸¹³¹⁴