Stournaras: Warning of Supply Shock Amid Geopolitical Challenges and Lessons from the Greek Crisis

The Governor of the Bank of Greece (ΤτΕ - Bank of Greece), Yannis Stournaras, expressed concern about a potential supply shock if the military conflict prolongs, during his speech at an AHEPA event in Frankfurt. This warning is set within a broader context of intense geopolitical uncertainty, with Mr. Stournaras underscoring the lessons from the Greek crisis as a valuable guide for the resilience of national economies and for addressing contemporary geopolitical challenges within the Eurozone.

The Greek Experience: From Crisis to Growth

Mr. Stournaras described Greece's strategic transition from the era of crisis to a period of “strategic acceleration.” He analyzed the structural weaknesses that led to fiscal derailment, emphasizing that the crisis did not begin as a banking crisis but as a public debt crisis. The lack of reforms in public administration and the social security system, combined with the delayed reaction of European institutions, exacerbated the recession. However, thanks to fiscal consolidation and reforms, the country managed to restore its credibility, transforming a primary deficit of 10.1% of GDP in 2009 into a surplus exceeding 4% by 2018.

Current State and Prospects of the Greek Economy

For 2025, the growth rate of the Greek economy stood at 2.1%, significantly exceeding the European average (1.4%). This momentum is expected to continue into 2026, primarily driven by private consumption and investments, which are supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Mr. Stournaras also highlighted the particular importance of unemployment falling to a single-digit rate (8.9% in 2025) for the first time since the onset of the crisis.

Priorities and European Integration

According to the Governor, Greece must focus on accelerating investments, green transition, and addressing the demographic challenge. At the European level, Mr. Stournaras strongly advocated for the issuance of common European debt to finance defense and energy, following the successful example of NextGenerationEU. “The completion of the banking union and the creation of a truly safe European asset are essential steps for Europe's strategic autonomy,” he noted. In conclusion, he expressed confidence that Greece now has the foundations for permanently higher rates of investment and productivity, provided that political stability and reform momentum are maintained.