Significant Decline in Olive Oil Prices and Risk of Market Oversupply

Producer prices for olive oil are recording a significant decline across the Mediterranean, as buyers fail to meet producers' supply levels. The anticipated increase in global production is creating conditions of oversupply, making it critical to take measures to ensure the income of olive farmers.

International Forecasts and Production Estimates

According to the initial forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, presented by international trade expert Dimitra Alieos at the conference of 4E (Επιστημονική Εταιρεία Εγκυκλοπαιδιστών Ελαιοκομίας – Scientific Society of Olive Encyclopedists), production is expected to increase by 6% to 20% (averaging 13%). This forecast concerns the seven largest olive-producing countries, which account for 80% of global production. Concurrently, an inexplicable retreat in consumption is being recorded, which, combined with production levels, will determine the opening stocks for the new season. Statistics regarding the balance from Spain in May 2026—the sudden revisions of which damaged the credibility of the industry's leading statistical source—are also causing concern.

Market Outlook and Prices

Pressure on prices is evident in commercial centers across the Mediterranean. Based on data from the Pool Red platform (a Spanish-based olive oil price monitoring platform) for the past month, prices for extra virgin olive oil fell by 5%, common virgin by 1.8%, and industrial (lampante, industrial grade oil requiring refining) by 3.2%.

In the Greek market, the trend is also downward, with sellers outnumbering buyers without finding a corresponding response. Specifically, producer prices (in euros per kilogram) are as follows:

• In Laconia, extra virgin ranges from €3.60 to €4.60.
• In Messinia, extra virgin moves from €3.50 to €5.00 (the higher price refers to the scarce ΠΟΠ Καλαμάτα – Kalamata PDO, Protected Designation of Origin).
• In Crete, extra virgin is sold from €4.00 to €4.40.
• Virgin olive oil (1.2°) ranges between €3.30 and €3.55.
• Lampante (5°) is set between €2.30 and €2.65.

The Risk of Oversupply

Unless there is an unforeseen change in current data, the market is heading toward oversupply conditions this autumn—a situation described as the "reverse of the 2022-2024 period." In this environment, questions are being raised as to whether low prices will discourage producers from harvesting the fruit, especially given the recorded shortage of manual labor.

Faced with these challenges, it appears the market is unable to self-regulate to ensure a fair and sustainable income for producers. It is therefore deemed necessary to adopt interventionist olive oil policies, following the example of other producing countries. Italy and Spain have already begun promoting solutions and institutional interventions to combat unfair competition and support olive cultivation against the impending crisis.