Greece's 2027 draft budget says private-sector pay rose 30% from 2019 to 2025. After inflation, the gain is about 9%
The draft 2027 budget forecasts 2.3% growth and inflation easing to 2.6%, targets a higher minimum wage and includes a €400 payment for pensioners. Its headline wage figures are nominal: on the government's own forecasts, pay per employee in 2027 would be about 1% below 2019 once prices are counted, by our calculation.
9We read 9 sources, 8 in Greek, 4 of them official documents, including the full 62-page draft budget and ELSTAT's monthly price index back to 2019, so you can read this in 5 minutes. What we checked ↓
Does this affect you?
- Minimum-wage earners
- The draft sets a target of €1,000 a month by January 2028, up from €920 now, through rises in April 2027 and January 2028. It names €960 from April 2027 as the aim for the next step; neither rate has been formally set yet. 1
- Private-sector employees
- Employees' social-insurance contributions (the deduction paid to ΔΥΠΑ, Δημόσια Υπηρεσία Απασχόλησης, Dimosia Ypiresia Apascholisis, the public employment service) would fall by 0.5 percentage point from 1 April 2027. The combined employee and employer rate would then be 34.66% (12.87% paid by the employee, 21.79% by the employer). 1
- Pensioners over 65
- The annual November support would rise to €400 net from November 2026 and be extended permanently to all pensioners over 65. 1
- Civil servants and other public officials
- About 720,000 public employees and officials would receive a €500 gross Christmas allowance from December 2027, and civil servants' basic pay would rise in line with the minimum wage in April 2027 and January 2028. 1
What to do Nothing changes yet. The draft says the new permanent measures have not yet been enacted, so each still needs a law or a ministerial decision before it takes effect. 1
Where it stands
Checked 12 October 2026- Draft 2027 state budget tabled at Parliament's Standing Committee on Economic Affairs 25 Oct 2026
- Final 2027 state budget tabled in ParliamentNo date announced · next
- Parliament votes on the 2027 state budgetNo date announced
- Laws or decisions for the new measures, such as the April 2027 minimum-wage rise and contribution cut 1No date announced
At a glance
- Greece's draft 2027 budget, tabled on 5 October 2026, forecasts growth of 2.3%, national CPI inflation of 2.6%, unemployment of 7.9% and public debt of 128.8% of GDP in 2027. [S1][S2]
- The draft says the average private-sector wage was 30.3% higher in 2025 than in 2019, and that the minimum wage, €920 since April 2026 (up from €880), is 41.5% higher than in 2019. After inflation, by our calculation from ELSTAT's index, those gains are about 9% and about 13%. [S1][S4]
- The draft forecasts pay per employee 25.8% above 2019 in 2027. Applying the draft's own inflation estimate and forecast to ELSTAT's index puts prices about 27% higher, by our calculation, so real pay would be about 1% below 2019, also by our calculation. [S1][S4]
Greece's draft 2027 state budget says the average monthly wage in the private sector was 30.3% higher in 2025 than in 2019, the year before the pandemic.1 That figure does not allow for prices, which also rose.14 By our calculation from the price index of ΕΛΣΤΑΤ (ELSTAT; Ελληνική Στατιστική Αρχή, Elliniki Statistiki Archi), the Hellenic Statistical Authority, the gain after inflation is about 9%.4
Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis tabled the draft at Parliament's Standing Committee on Economic Affairs (Διαρκής Επιτροπή Οικονομικών Υποθέσεων, Diarkis Epitropi Oikonomikon Ypotheseon) on 5 October 2026.2 It was prepared by his Ministry of National Economy and Finance (Υπουργείο Εθνικής Οικονομίας και Οικονομικών, Ypourgeio Ethnikis Oikonomias kai Oikonomikon).1
What does Greece's 2027 draft budget forecast?
The draft forecasts real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2027, up from 2.0% in 2026, against 1.2% for the euro area in the European Commission's spring forecast.1 The Hellenic Fiscal Council (Ελληνικό Δημοσιονομικό Συμβούλιο, Elliniko Dimosionomiko Symvoulio) endorses the macroeconomic forecasts on which the draft is based.1
| 2025 | 2026 (estimate) | 2027 (forecast) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Inflation, national CPI | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Inflation, EU-harmonised (HICP) | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Unemployment (Labour Force Survey) | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% |
| Pay per employee, nominal | n/a | +3.7% | +3.9% |
| General government debt, % of GDP | 146.1% | 136.7% | 128.8% |
| General government primary surplus, % of GDP (ESA) | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% |
The figures come from Table 1.2 (p. 24), the text on pay per employee (pp. 3, 14 and 24), the ministers' introduction (pp. 3–4), Table 2.1 (pp. 28–29) and, for 2025 debt, Table 3.1 (p. 58) of the draft.1 The ministry's announcement calls the 3.6% and 3.3% the state budget's primary surplus, but the draft's Table 2.1 shows them as general government figures; the state budget's own primary surplus is 2.0% of GDP in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.21 The ministry says 7.9% unemployment would be the lowest in Greece since 2008.1
Reuters' report on 5 October 2026 covered growth, debt and the €2.2bn package of measures, but not the draft's wage figures; on pay, it said only that the average monthly salary of €1,500 "remains stuck at 2009 levels".9 Reuters put 2026 debt at 136.8% of GDP; the draft says 136.7%.91
What does the draft promise households?
The draft says the November support for pensioners rises to €400 net from November 2026 and is extended permanently to all pensioners over 65.1 Our guide to the €400 payment explains who would qualify.
The draft sets a target of raising the minimum wage to €1,000 through two rises, in April 2027 and January 2028.1 It describes €960 from April 2027 as the «στόχευση» (aim) for the coming period; the rate has not yet been formally set.1
Employees' private-sector social-insurance contributions, the deduction paid to ΔΥΠΑ (Δημόσια Υπηρεσία Απασχόλησης, Dimosia Ypiresia Apascholisis), the public employment service, would fall by 0.5 percentage point from 1 April 2027.1 The combined employee and employer rate would then be 34.66%: 12.87% for the employee and 21.79% for the employer.1
Civil servants and other public officials, about 720,000 people, would receive a €500 gross Christmas allowance from December 2027.1 A new «Σπίτι μου ΙΙΙ» (Spiti mou III) first-home loan scheme would have €2bn; our Spiti mou III explainer sets out the terms.1
The draft says the new permanent measures «δεν έχουν ακόμη θεσμοθετηθεί», which we translate as "have not yet been enacted", and estimates their cost at €605m in 2026 and €2.27bn in 2027.1 Each still needs a law or a ministerial decision before it takes effect.1
Is pay really up 30% since 2019?
In nominal terms the draft's figure holds. The annual report of ΕΡΓΑΝΗ (Ergani), the information system in which employers declare hirings and departures, puts the average private-sector wage at €1,046 in 2019 and €1,362.66 in 2025, as reported by Reporter.gr.6 That average covers part-time as well as full-time staff.6
ELSTAT's consumer price index averaged 101.264 in 2019 and 120.909 in 2025, a rise of 19.4% by our calculation.4 Dividing the 30.3% wage rise by that price rise (1.303 ÷ 1.194) gives a real gain of about 9.1%, by our calculation.14
The minimum wage was set at €650 from 1 February 2019 and has been €920 since 1 April 2026, a nominal rise of 41.5%.51 Prices rose 25.7% between September 2019 and September 2026, by our calculation from ELSTAT's index (102.001 to 128.223).4 After inflation, the minimum wage is therefore about 12.6% higher than in 2019, by our calculation.41
What do the draft's own figures say about pay after inflation?
The draft itself says nominal incomes must be judged "together with the path of the price level" (our translation).1 Its forecast of compensation per employee is a national-accounts measure that includes civil servants.1 The draft says the 3.9% rise in 2027 reflects continuing wage growth, including the planned new minimum-wage rise, the resulting rise in civil servants' pay and the new Christmas allowance for public employees.1 The draft forecasts compensation per employee 25.8% above 2019 in 2027, with a real rise of 1.4% in 2027 alone.1
We applied the draft's own inflation estimate for 2026 (3.8%) and forecast for 2027 (2.6%) to ELSTAT's 2025 index average.14 That puts prices about 27.2% above their 2019 level in 2027, by our calculation.14 Pay up 25.8% against prices up 27.2% leaves real pay per employee about 1% below 2019, by our calculation (1.258 ÷ 1.272).14
On the government's own forecasts, pay per employee in 2027 would be about 1% below its 2019 level after inflation, by our calculation.14
Because this national-accounts measure includes public-sector pay, while ERGANI's covers private-sector employees, the two results are not directly comparable.1
Is the 2026 inflation estimate already out of date?
The draft's 3.8% inflation estimate for 2026 uses data to the end of August 2026, when the January–August average was 3.9%.1 In September 2026, annual inflation rose to 5.0%, ELSTAT reported on 9 October 2026; our September inflation analysis breaks that down.3 By our calculation from ELSTAT's index, prices in January–September 2026 averaged 4.0% above the same months of 2025.4 If 2026 ends at 4.0% rather than 3.8%, real pay per employee in 2027 would be about 1.3% below 2019, by our calculation.14
Where do the sector figures of up to 45.4% come from?
Newsit and Mononews published sector pay rises of up to 45.4% since 2019 on 11 October 2026, in articles on the draft budget.78 Both attribute them to ELSTAT surveys; Newsit gives the period as 2019 to 2026.78 Those figures are not in the draft budget: we searched the text of all 62 pages, and none of its tables or charts covers pay by sector.1
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What we checked
Highlights from our fact-check against the original Greek documents. Every claim in the article went through the same check.
- Got it wrong
Newsit and Mononews put the average private-sector wage in 2025 at €1,336 78
The draft budget gives €1,363 1, and ERGANI's 2025 report, as reported by Reporter.gr, gives €1,362.66 6. €1,336 swaps two digits.
- Got it wrong
Newsit and Mononews report that real pay per employee will rise by 1.5% in 2027 78
The draft budget says 1.4% 1.
- Got it wrong
The Finance Ministry's announcement calls the 3.6% (2026) and 3.3% (2027) of GDP primary surplus the state budget's figure 2
The draft's Table 2.1 shows these as general government figures. The state budget's own primary surplus is 2.0% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027 1.
- Not in the document
Newsit and Mononews, writing about the draft budget, report sector pay rises since 2019 of up to 45.4%, attributed to ELSTAT surveys 78
We searched the text of all 62 pages of the draft budget and found no sector wage figures and no wage index 1. The outlets do not say which ELSTAT index or release the figures come from.
- Confirmed
The draft says the average private-sector wage rose 30.3% between 2019 and 2025 1
ERGANI's figures as reported are €1,046 in 2019 and €1,362.66 in 2025, a 30.3% rise 6. The figure is nominal and includes part-time workers 6; after inflation the rise is about 9%, by our calculation 4.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the final budget will revise the 3.8% inflation estimate for 2026. The draft used data to the end of August 2026, and September's annual rate was 5.0%.
- Whether higher-than-expected inflation will reduce the 1.4% real rise in pay per employee that the draft forecasts for 2027.
- Which index and which release the sector wage figures published on 11 October 2026 (up to 45.4%) come from. The outlets attribute them to ELSTAT surveys (covering 2019 to 2026, according to Newsit), but they are not in the draft budget.
- When the government will formally set the April 2027 minimum wage. The draft gives €960 as the aim for the next period; it has not been formally set.
- The exact dates on which the final budget will be tabled and voted. We found none in the documents we read.
«Σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία της ετήσιας έκθεσης του πληροφοριακού συστήματος ΕΡΓΑΝΗ για το 2025, ο μέσος μηνιαίος μισθός των μισθωτών του ιδιωτικού τομέα διαμορφώθηκε σε 1.363 ευρώ, αυξημένος κατά 30,3% σε σύγκριση με το 2019, ενώ ο μέσος μισθός πλήρους απασχόλησης ανήλθε σε 1.516 ευρώ.»
According to the figures in the annual report of the ERGANI information system for 2025, the average monthly wage of private-sector employees stood at €1,363, up 30.3% compared with 2019, while the average full-time wage came to €1,516. (in our translation)
«Η εξέλιξη των ονομαστικών εισοδημάτων και του διαθέσιμου εισοδήματος των νοικοκυριών πρέπει, ωστόσο, να αξιολογείται συνδυαστικά με την πορεία του επιπέδου των τιμών.»
The development of nominal incomes and of households' disposable income must, however, be assessed together with the path of the price level. (in our translation)
«Σε σύγκριση με το 2019 οι κατά κεφαλήν αμοιβές εξαρτημένης εργασίας προβλέπεται να είναι αυξημένες κατά 25,8% σε ονομαστικούς όρους. Σε πραγματικούς όρους οι ονομαστικές αμοιβές ανά εργαζόμενο προβλέπεται να αυξηθούν κατά 1,4% το 2027, καθ’ όσον η αύξηση των ονομαστικών αμοιβών συνδυάζεται με την αποκλιμάκωση του πληθωρισμού.»
Compared with 2019, compensation per employee is forecast to be 25.8% higher in nominal terms. In real terms, nominal compensation per employee is forecast to rise by 1.4% in 2027, as the rise in nominal pay combines with easing inflation. (in our translation)
Sources
- Υπουργείο Εθνικής Οικονομίας και Οικονομικών (Ministry of National Economy and Finance) · Προσχέδιο Κρατικού Προϋπολογισμού 2027 (Draft State Budget 2027, PDF, 62 pp.) · 5 October 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗
Passage we quote: Chapter 1.1, p. 14
«Σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία της ετήσιας έκθεσης του πληροφοριακού συστήματος ΕΡΓΑΝΗ για το 2025, ο μέσος μηνιαίος μισθός των μισθωτών του ιδιωτικού τομέα διαμορφώθηκε σε 1.363 ευρώ, αυξημένος κατά 30,3% σε σύγκριση με το 2019, ενώ ο μέσος μισθός πλήρους απασχόλησης ανήλθε σε 1.516 ευρώ.»
According to the figures in the annual report of the ERGANI information system for 2025, the average monthly wage of private-sector employees stood at €1,363, up 30.3% compared with 2019, while the average full-time wage came to €1,516. (in our translation)
Passage we quote: Chapter 1.1, p. 14
«Η εξέλιξη των ονομαστικών εισοδημάτων και του διαθέσιμου εισοδήματος των νοικοκυριών πρέπει, ωστόσο, να αξιολογείται συνδυαστικά με την πορεία του επιπέδου των τιμών.»
The development of nominal incomes and of households' disposable income must, however, be assessed together with the path of the price level. (in our translation)
Passage we quote: Chapter 1.3, p. 24
«Σε σύγκριση με το 2019 οι κατά κεφαλήν αμοιβές εξαρτημένης εργασίας προβλέπεται να είναι αυξημένες κατά 25,8% σε ονομαστικούς όρους. Σε πραγματικούς όρους οι ονομαστικές αμοιβές ανά εργαζόμενο προβλέπεται να αυξηθούν κατά 1,4% το 2027, καθ’ όσον η αύξηση των ονομαστικών αμοιβών συνδυάζεται με την αποκλιμάκωση του πληθωρισμού.»
Compared with 2019, compensation per employee is forecast to be 25.8% higher in nominal terms. In real terms, nominal compensation per employee is forecast to rise by 1.4% in 2027, as the rise in nominal pay combines with easing inflation. (in our translation)
- Υπουργείο Εθνικής Οικονομίας και Οικονομικών (Ministry of National Economy and Finance) · Κατατέθηκε στη Διαρκή Επιτροπή Οικονομικών Υποθέσεων της Βουλής το Προσχέδιο του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισμού 2027 · 5 October 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗
- ΕΛΣΤΑΤ (Hellenic Statistical Authority) · Δείκτης Τιμών Καταναλωτή (2020=100,0), Σεπτέμβριος 2026 · 9 October 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- ΕΛΣΤΑΤ (Hellenic Statistical Authority) · Χρονολογική σειρά ΔΤΚ, μηνιαίοι δείκτες Ιανουάριος 1959 – Σεπτέμβριος 2026 (CPI monthly index, 2020=100, XLS) · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- Lawspot · Αύξηση του κατώτατου μισθού (11%) στα 650 ευρώ από 1η Φεβρουαρίου 2019 · 28 January 2019 · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- Reporter.gr · Στα 1.516 ευρώ ο μέσος μισθός πλήρους απασχόλησης το 2025 · 2 February 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- Newsit · Αυξήσεις μισθών 30% από το 2019 – Τι δείχνουν στοιχεία από το προσχέδιο του προϋπολογισμού · 11 October 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- Mononews · Μισθοί: Αυξήσεις έως 45,4% από το 2019 – Ποιοι εργαζόμενοι είδαν τα μεγαλύτερα κέρδη · 11 October 2026 · in Greek · Open ↗ · Archived copy
- Reuters, via Cyprus Mail · Greece projects faster 2027 growth, steeper debt ratio decline · 5 October 2026 · Open ↗ · Archived copy
Every figure in the text links to its source. Our own calculations are marked as such. Translations from Greek are ours. Archived copies are snapshots saved on the Internet Archive when we published.
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